ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) is a strong prognostic marker in sepsis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The prognostic value of GDF-15 in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is unknown. METHODS: Consecutive, hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and symptoms of COVID-19 were enrolled in the prospective, observational COVID Mechanisms Study. Biobank samples were collected at baseline, day 3 and day 9. The primary end point was admission to the intensive care unit or death during hospitalization, and the prognostic performance of baseline and serial GDF-15 concentrations were compared with that of established infectious disease and cardiovascular biomarkers. RESULTS: Of the 123 patients enrolled, 35 (28%) reached the primary end point; these patients were older, more often had diabetes, and had lower oxygen saturations and higher National Early Warning Scores on baseline. Baseline GDF-15 concentrations were elevated (>95th percentile in age-stratified healthy individuals) in 97 (79%), and higher concentrations were associated with detectable SARS-CoV-2 viremia and hypoxemia (both P<0.001). Patients reaching the primary end point had higher concentrations of GDF-15 (median, 4225 [IQR, 3197-5972] pg/mL versus median, 2187 [IQR, 1344-3620] pg/mL, P<0.001). The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.86). The association between GDF-15 and the primary end point persisted after adjusting for age, sex, race, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, previous myocardial infarction, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation (P<0.001) and was superior and incremental to interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, ferritin, D-dimer, cardiac troponin T, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. Increase in GDF-15 from baseline to day 3 was also greater in patients reaching the primary end point (median, 1208 [IQR, 0-4305] pg/mL versus median, -86 [IQR, -322 to 491] pg/mL, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: GDF-15 is elevated in the majority of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, and higher concentrations are associated with SARS-CoV-2 viremia, hypoxemia, and worse outcome. The prognostic value of GDF-15 was additional and superior to established cardiovascular and inflammatory biomarkers. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT04314232.